SFHL 2025-26 Season Preview
GregIn our constant attempts at perfection, we continue to use dual sources of information for these ratings: The Forecaster and The Athletic’s Top 150 players list. The Forecaster appears to have decided that they were a little too conservative with the number of players listed last year, as the Total Players has jumped from 45 to 61 (plus a few players we missed acquiring). Reviewing the statistics, probably no surprises this year: the teams you think will be good are good and the teams that you think will be bad are the Sharks. If you need it or care, a reminder of what the Tiers mean for each of the Athletic categories can be found at the very bottom of the page, but the quick summary is:
Tier 1: MVP
Tier 2: Franchise
Tier 3: All-Star
Tier 4: Top Line
Tier 5: Support
Avalanche
Forecaster:
Elite: Barkov
On The Rise: Wright, Michkov, W. Smith
On The Rebound: Mittlestadt, Barbashev
Buyer Beware: E. Lindholm, McLeod, Landeskog, Merzlikins
The Athletic:
Tier 1: Barkov
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Seider
Tier 4: Sergachev, Horvat, Michkov
Tier 5: Fiala, Meier
Comments: There’s no salary cap on management, and the Avalanche have become the first team to actively expand their management group. It remains a family affair, with GM Peter brining in his son Daniel as Assist GM, overseeing the draft and auction this year. We’ll see if the expanded brain trust pays off. It’s unlikely to this year, but there was some early aggressive moves for future players. Indeed, their only Tier 1/Elite player is one they traded for but who’s already done for the season.
Blackhawks
Forecaster:
Elite: Point, W. Nylander, Morrissey
On The Rise: Bedard, Carlsson, Slafkovsky,
On The Rebound: Norris, E. Kane, Josi, Gibson, Shesterkin
Buyer Beware: P. Kane, Lankinen
The Athletic:
Tier 1:
Tier 2: Point, Shesterkin, Morrissey, W. Nylander, Slavin
Tier 3: Josi
Tier 4: Bedard, Weegar, Carlson, Hintz
Tier 5: Marchand, Carlsson
Comments: Made a stunningly big move just before the draft/auction, trading away the best defenseman in the league for a top level prospect (though one who’s now entering his 3rd year). Top level defenseman are hard to come by, and the Blackhawks have built a solid team, so we’ll see if the gamble pays off.
Bruins
Forecaster:
Elite: Hutson
On The Rise: Celebrini, Coronato, Cuylle, Guenther, Mateychuk, Dostal, Knight
On The Rebound: Eriksson Ek, Buchnevich, Sharangovich, Drysdale
Buyer Beware:
The Athletic:
Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Boldy, Bratt, Celebrini, Forsling, Larkin, Hutson
Tier 4: Eriksson Ek, Guenther, Konecny
Tier 5: Buchnevich, Dostal, Hertl
Comments: The Bruins are in the process of emerging from a quick rebuild, and the statistics back up that the early results are positive. While lacking Tier 1 and 2 players and only having one Elite player (and one who’s very young), they easily lead the league in On The Rise players and Tier 3 (a slew of young players not yet ready to push for a Cup but capable of it in the future).
Canadiens
Forecaster:
Elite: Keller
On The Rise: W. Eklund, Harley
On The Rebound: Barzal, Stamkos, Mangiapane, E. Karlsson, Saros, Swayman
Buyer Beware: Tavares, M. Tkachuk, Hamilton, S. Skinner
The Athletic:
Tier 1:
Tier 2: M. Tkachuck
Tier 3: Harley, Keller, Sorokin, Theodore
Tier 4: Barzal, Byfield, Swayman, Saros, Tavares
Tier 5: Hamilton, Caufield, DeBrincat, E. Karlsson
Comments: After remotely participating in the draft and auction this year, the Canadiens enter the season with the highest salaries in the league. But are they any good? The answer is they’ll likely be better, but remain uncompetitive for another Cup. At this time, they lack Elite (only 1) or Tier 1 (zero) players, the kind of players required to win. They also lead the league in On The Rebound players, meaning they’re counting on a bounce back campaign from too many players.
Devils
Forecaster:
Elite: MacKinnon, McDavid, Werenski
On The Rise: Edvinsson
On The Rebound: Dunn
Buyer Beware: Hedman, LaCombe
The Athletic:
Tier 1: McDavid, MacKinnon
Tier 2: Eichel, Werenski
Tier 3: Hagel, Hedman
Tier 4: Stone
Tier 5: Edvinsson, Dunn, LaCombe, Lehkonen, Protas, L. Thompson, Trocheck
Comments: After a number of years of banging on the door, the Devils were finally able to make it to a Cup final. Unfortunately, that’s where the wheels immediately fell off, going down meekly to the Flyers. The core of this contending team remains intact. Despite a hefty raise, MacKinnon returns with McDavid, forming one of the best top pairings in the league. They added Werenski last season, bringing their total Elite players up to 3, and mitigated their risk by having some of the lowest levels of On The Rebound and Buyer Beware players in the league. Will it be enough to finally get their first Cup?
Flyers
Forecaster:
Elite: Draisaitl, Kucherov, Reinhart, B. Tkachuk, Bouchard
On The Rise: Dorofeyev, Faber, Woll
On The Rebound: Andersen
Buyer Beware: Couturier, Dach, Duchene, Kopitar, Donato, Letang, Matheson, Kuemper
The Athletic:
Tier 1: Draisaitl, Kucherov
Tier 2: Reinhart, Bouchard
Tier 3: Thomas, B. Tkachuk
Tier 4: Faber, J.T. Miller
Tier 5: Kadri, Sanheim, Stolarz, Blackwood, Doughty, Kopitar
Comments: We’re in to the dying days of a dynasty. They Flyers are still good – they’re tied for the most Elite (5) and Tier 1 (2) players in the league, while having the most Total Players per the Forecaster. But they’ve also go the most Buyer Beware players in the league as well, meaning they’re gambling on a number of high risk players to help propel them to one more Cup. Will it be enough? We’ll find out in April, though expect the Flyers GM to harass you during the year with trade offers of 2 or 3 “Tier 5” players in exchange for your Tier 1 superstar.
Golden Knights
Forecaster:
Elite: Kaprizov, Hellebuyck
On The Rise: Wolf
On The Rebound: W. Karlsson, Tippett, S. Jones
Buyer Beware: Dubois, Lee, Ovechkin
The Athletic:
Tier 1: Kaprizov
Tier 2: Hellebuyck
Tier 3:
Tier 4: Kempe, Scheifele, Svechnikov, Marchenko, S. Jones, Parayko, Wolf
Tier 5: Dubois, Chabot, Nugent-Hopkins, Ovechkin
Comments: The Golden Knight have been going “All In” the last few years, and while they’ve certainly been good they haven’t quite been able to push through to true contender status. Both sources agree that they have 2 top end players: Kaprizov and Hellebuyck, and both sources agree that it’s a drop off after that. They have the most Tier 4 players, and a strong contingent of Tier 5, but this is generally supporting player areas. Expect more of the same, good but not a contender.
Lightning
Forecaster:
Elite: Rantanen, T. Thompson, Q. Hughes
On The Rise: Gauthier, Chychrun, Clarke
On The Rebound: Beniers, Cozens, Pettersson, Fox, Heiskanen
Buyer Beware: Grubauer
The Athletic:
Tier 1: Q. Hughes
Tier 2: Heiskanen, Rantanen, Fox
Tier 3: Suzuki, Pettersson, T. Thompson, Raymond
Tier 4: Wilson, Ullmark, Necas
Tier 5: Montembeault, Vilardi, Broberg
Comments: The Lightning continue their slow slide in to irrelevance. After being a contender for multiple years and winning once, the Lightning were bounced in the first round last year. They’re certainly not a bad team, but the statistics point to them being closer to an average one. Do they regret not trading away more of their future to win in the present? Or, after a slightly down year, do they think they’re ready to rebound quickly and contend again? We’ll find out as the new season unfolds.
Penguins
Forecaster:
Elite: Connor, Vasilevskiy
On The Rise: Cooley, Knies, L. Hughes, Sanderson
On The Rebound: Stutzle, Zegras, Boeser, Kreider, Laine, Demko
Buyer Beware: Dobson
The Athletic:
Tier 1: Crosby
Tier 2: Hischier, Vasilevskiy
Tier 3: Sanderson, Stutzle, Connor
Tier 4: Dobson, Ehlers, W. Johnston, Knies, Cooley
Tier 5: Demko, Ekblad, Monahan, Markstrom
Comments: The Penguins look to be a solid team, with few elite players but incredible depth down the line up. Indeed, the Athletic ranks them as having the 2nd most total players, and the Forecaster has them with a solid number of Total Players while counting on the most players to Rebound. As usual, they enter the season as a team that might not win but that you do not want to meet in the first round.
Red Wings
Forecaster:
Elite: Matthews, Dahlin, Makar, Bobrovsky, Oettinger
On the Rise:
On The Rebound: J. Hughes, McAvoy
Buyer Beware: Bennett, Chytil, Cirelli, Marner
The Athletic:
Tier 1: Makar, Matthews
Tier 2: Dahlin, J Hughes, Marner, Aho, Panarin
Tier 3: McAvoy, Bobrovsky, Oettinger
Tier 4: Cirelli, Bennett, Ekholm, Hyman, Kyrou
Tier 5: Fantilli, Garland, Rust
Comments: It’s important to note that I do not put the players in each category, because…Marner as a “Buyer Beware”? It would be understandable for him to have a point drop, but I don’t think he’d be a major concern on a roster. With that being said, the Red Wings should absolutely be a contender this year. Tied for the most Elite players per the Forecaster and a step ahead of virtually every team in the total number of top players they have per The Athletic, anything less than a Cup should come as a huge disappointment to the Red Wings this year.
Sharks
Forecaster:
Elite:
On The Rise: Kulich, Evans, Schneider, Hofer
On The Rebound: Rielly
Buyer Beware: Rossi
The Athletic:
Tier 1: Pastrnak
Tier 2:
Tier 3:
Tier 4:
Tier 5: Rielly
Comments: The Athletic lists the top 150 players in the NHL, and the Sharks have…2. I didn’t even know that was possible. The Forecaster is a little kinder, acknowledging that they have some emerging talent at least. But this is a team clearly hoping to improve their Athletic ranking not through the auction or trades, but by drafting McKenna next year.
Stars
Forecaster:
Elite:
On The Rise: Kasper, Bolduc, Holloway, Greaves
On The Rebound: Malkin. Lafreniere, Durzi, Hronek
Buyer Beware: Benn, Drouin, M. Geekie
The Athletic:
Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Guentzel, Jarvis, Robertson, Forsberg, Toews
Tier 4: Hanifin, Verhaeghe
Tier 5: D. Strome, Holloway
Comments: A team with lots of depth players but absolutely no top end talent right now. Robertson has taken a step back and Lafreniere wasn’t taken the step forward yet, and it’s left the Stars caught in a bind. Reports also indicate that the Stars GM was under the weather at the draft/auction this year, and it’s impossible to say if that may have impacted some outcomes.
Bonus content:
No Roster – Players listed in good categories but not on any team:
Forecaster:
On The Rise: Raty, Andrae, Mukhamadullin, A. Vlasic
The Athletic:
Tier 5: Lindell, McDonagh, Mikey Anderson, D. Samberg, Tanev
Pre-Season Rankings
12) Sharks
11) Avalanche
10) Stars
9) Canadiens
8) Bruins
7) Golden Knights
6) Blackhawks
5) Penguins
4) Devils
3) Lightning
2) Flyers
1) Red Wings
2025-26 Stats:
| Forecaster: | |||||
| Team | Elite | OT Rise | Total Players | OT Rebound | Buyer Beware |
| Avalanche | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Blackhawks | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| Bruins | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Canadiens | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Devils | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Flyers | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
| Golden Knights | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Lightning | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Penguins | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Red Wings | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Sharks | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Stars | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Total | 26 | 35 | 61 | 40 | 33 |
| The Athletic: | ||||||
| Team | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3 | Tier 4 | Tier 5 | Total |
| Avalanche | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Blackhawks | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| Bruins | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| Canadiens | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| Devils | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| Flyers | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| Golden Knights | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| Lightning | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Penguins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| Red Wings | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| Sharks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Stars | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Total | 11 | 21 | 31 | 40 | 41 | 144 |
The Athletic Tier Descriptions:
Tier 1 — MVP
A top 10 skater. Someone who is very likely to get serious trophy consideration at season’s end and whom championship-caliber teams are built around. The best player on almost any team in the league.
Tier 2 — Franchise
A top 30 player. Someone who is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship-caliber team. An unquestionably elite player.
Tier 3 — All-Star
A top 60 player. Someone who wouldn’t be the best player on a contender, but would be an important part of any contending or championship core. A strong top-line forward, above average No. 1 defenseman, or borderline top five goalie.
Tier 4 — Top Line
A top 100 player. Someone who would be a strong piece within a contending or championship core, but not a go-to option. An average top line forward, below average number one defenseman, or top 10 goalie.
Tier 5 – Support
A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but who wouldn’t be an integral piece within it. A below average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.
In general, I think the Forecaster and Athletic do two different things. The Forecaster is perhaps better at demonstrating what a team is doing (more On The Rise might indicate more of a rebuild) or how much risk their team is taking on (with the On the Rebound and Buyer Beware categories) but the Athletic does a better job of demonstrating how much depth a team has to contend this year.
