SFHL 2022-23 Season Preview
GregThe Forecaster was much more generous with its categories this year, with the number of Elite players jumping from 16 last year to 36 this year and the total players (in good categories) going from 52 up to 74. That makes a year-over-year comparison for each team a little trickier, but we can still look at how teams compare to each other this year. My constant disclaimer: I do not pick the players in each category, I only evaluate the team after the fact.
Avalanche
Elite: Marner, Hellebuyck
Breakthrough: Lafreniere, Heiskanen, A. Forsberg
On The Rise: Seider
On The Rebound: Point
Buyer Beware: Husso
Comments: Despite the increase in Elite players on the list this year, the Avalanche have taken a step back in that category, one of the few teams to do so. Some emerging talent means they’re unlikely to miss the playoffs, but they don’t seem close to competing for a Championship yet.
Blackhawks
Elite: Letang, Makar
Breakthrough: Hayton, Merzlikins
On The Rise: Tomasino, Mercer
On The Rebound:
Buyer Beware:
Comments: You have to hand it to the Blackhawks: they at least tried to go out and spend big, pushing hard for Stamkos (amongst others) but couldn’t quite land one of the big prizes this year. There’s a few pieces in place and they don’t seem to have any risks, but it might not be the season they hoped it would be. Still, the willingness to spend big might indicate that they’re in the market for an elite player later in the year.
Bruins
Elite: Aho, Shesterkin
Breakthrough:
On The Rise: Krebs, Boldy, Durzi, Knight
On The Rebound: Konecny, Samsonov
Buyer Beware:
Comments: The Bruins are openly tanking, and nothing says “I’m trying to tank and rebuild” like having multiple Elite players on your team. In fairness to their GM, he did spend the offseason openly shopping them. Expect this roster to get worse as the season goes on. Can they break their own record for ”most consecutive loses” in a season, a record they set at the end of last year?
Canadiens
Elite: Crosby, DeBrincat, J. Gaudreau, Panarin, Rielly
Breakthrough: Sergachev
On The Rise: Caufield, Sorokin, Swayman
On The Rebound: Malkin, Hamilton
Buyer Beware: McCann
Comments: Missed the playoffs last year, made few changes in the offseason, and now find themselves tied for the most Elite players (5) and Total Players (9). But if they failed to make the playoffs last year and didn’t really add to their roster, isn’t that an indication that they’re not really very good? That there’s some deeper flaw on the team? There’s going to be a reliance on some young(ish) goalies to rise up and a few key players to rebound. Making the playoffs this year doesn’t seem unreasonable, but contending might be further off than the stats indicate.
Devils
Elite: MacKinnon, McDavid, Zibanejad, E.Kane, Hedman
Breakthrough:
On The Rise:
On The Rebound: Stone
Buyer Beware: Bunting, DeAngelo
Comments: The Devils window to win is now, and they know it. They’re all in on veteran elite players (tied for the league lead with 5), with no younger players coming through their system and they’re gambling on a few questionable players to match last year’s numbers. Expect an active year from them on the trade front as the push to win during McDavid’s prime.
Flyers
Elite: Draisaitl, Kucherov, Ekblad
Breakthrough: Lehkonen, Bouchard
On The Rise:
On The Rebound: Lee, Toffoli, Gibson
Buyer Beware: Backstrom
Comments: The Flyers once again had a dominant season. So dominant that many teams seemed to concede the championship before the playoffs even began, resulting in a quiet trade deadline that saw few teams look to add. Yet once again, the regular season proved to be a mirage as they crashed out early. They’ll come back with a few critical players in key positions, but gambling on the highest number of players to rebound. Ultimately, they might be held back by their commitment to non-critical players like the Tkachuk brothers (who failed to make any of the key categories).
Golden Knights
Elite: Ovechkin, Demko
Breakthrough: Kotkaniemi, Beauvillier, Oettinger
On The Rise:
On The Rebound: Horvat, Seguin
Buyer Beware: Burakovsky
Comments: As the Golden Knights sold off players before the auction, they declared that “Cash Was King”, but their lineup doesn’t seem to reflect that. They threw money at Ovechkin but the remainder of their lineup remains weak. Goaltending is one potential strength, and maybe the goalie rule change this year will help them vs some opponents. Look for desperation moves later in the season.
Lightning
Elite: Stamkos, Rantanen, Fox, Q. Hughes, Josi
Breakthrough: Pettersson, Necas
On The Rise: Cozens,
On The Rebound: Fleury
Buyer Beware:
Comments: The defending Champions will look to repeat with another strong lineup, tied for most elite players (5). They certainly paid up to do it with an old-school bidding war on Stamkos at the auction, making him the highest paid player the SFHL has seen in years. This contract may have cost them some depth, but they’ll still be contenders by the end of the season.
Penguins
Elite: Barkov, Zegras, Kaprizov, Vasilevskiy
Breakthrough: Stutzle
On The Rise: Lundell, McLeod, Byram, Drysdale
On The Rebound: W. Karlsson, Laine
Buyer Beware: Saros
Comments: Possibly the best balance of Elite players and emerging talent on the list, their GM never seems quite convinced his team can actually contend yet. One of the most active GMs this offseason, if his team looks to be in a good spot to win it he certainly has the pieces to pull off a major trade to push the team over the top. (Editor’s note: Yeah, I triple checked that Saros was a Buyer Beware. I think that’s weird, but I don’t make the list.)
Red Wings
Elite: Matthews, Kyrou
Breakthrough: J. Hughes, Dahlin
On The Rebound: Chychrun, Krug
Buyer Beware: Weegar
Comments: A number of high end forwards, but weaker in other areas. Picked up Kyrou a few years ago after another team just gave up on him and are now reaping the rewards. Good enough to make the playoffs, and could cause a first round upset, but likely not enough depth to contend.
Sharks
Elite: Huberdeau, Pastrnak
Breakthrough: Georgiev
On The Rise:
On The Rebound: E. Karlsson,
Buyer Beware: Danault, Perron, Giordano
Comments: Last year, it looked like the Sharks had a clear plan: load up a on a few veterans to sell at the trade deadline and miss the playoffs to get a good pick. Instead they unexpectedly (even to their GM) went to the Finals and nearly won another Championship after getting a rebound year from Ovechkin and career years from a few other players. With that recent history in mind, I say this with trepidation: I think this is the year the Sharks finally miss the playoffs. There’s a few elite players still, but they’re gambling on the most Buyer Beware players in the league and doing so on a thin roster. With a deep draft coming up, I don’t think they’ll be unhappy to miss and begin building their next dynasty.
Stars
Elite: Guentzel, P. Kane
Breakthrough: Zacha, Boqvist
On The Rise: Jarvis, T. Smith
On The Rebound: Petry, M. Murray
Buyer Beware:
Comments: A couple of elite players and a bunch of younger player the Stars are hoping to rise up. They’ll likely be in the mix for a final playoff spot, but they could easily go either way: push to make it, or tank for a better draft pick this year.
Bonus content:
Now, I hate being accused of something I haven’t done. During pre-auction discussions, I was accused a few times of “ranking” a team too low. This of course is false. I have never ranked teams, simply provided a general guide of how I think teams will finish. So fuck it. If I’m going to be accused of how I “ranked” a team, I might as well actually do it. Welcome to our first ever Pre-Season Power Rankings.
12) Bruins – Because they really want to be in this spot
11) Sharks – I think also want to be down here but might accidentally do better.
10) Golden Knights – Will go as far as Ovechkin can carry them.
9) Stars – Some quality young talent, but maybe a years too early.
8) Avalanche – Seem to be constantly rebuilding, but still seem good enough for the playoffs.
7) Blackhawks – Will sneak in to the playoffs, then cause someone a scare.
6) Red Wings – About the same as they finished the last few years.
5) Canadiens – On paper, should be decent. But they looked that way last year too.
4) Penguins – If their young talent breaks through, look out.
3) Flyers – Great regular season last year, shouldn’t be counted out.
2) Devils – Going all out to win now.
1) Lightning – The defending champs return a strong team.
Summary of players per category:
| 2022-23 Stats | ||||||
| Team | Elite | Breakthrough | OT Rise | Total Players | OT Rebound | Buyer Beware |
| Avalanche | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Blackhawks | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruins | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Canadiens | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Devils | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Flyers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Golden Knights | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Lightning | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Penguins | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Red Wings | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Sharks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Stars | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| 36 | 19 | 19 | 74 | 18 | 10 | |
| 2021-22 Stats | ||||||
| Team | Elite | Breakthrough | OT Rise | Total Players | OT Rebound | Buyer Beware |
| Avalanche | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Blackhawks | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruins | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Canadiens | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Devils | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Flyers | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Golden Knights | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Lightning | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Penguins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Red Wings | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Sharks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Stars | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 16 | 18 | 18 | 52 | 17 | 16 |
