SFHL 2023-24 Season Preview

Here’s the thing.  Frankly, the Forecaster is becoming trash.  It’s a downloaded PDF only.  The player photos are mid-90s era computer graphics.  But worst of all, they cut a category I use for the annual rankings.  The Breakthrough player category is no more.  Instead, they appear to have expanded the On The Rise category, since our total players there rose from 19 to 32.  As well, either we’re all gambling more this year or they were harsher in their evaluations for On The Rebound and Buyer Beware categories, because we rose from 18 and 10 to 27 and 24, respectively. So, what to do?  Answer: still provide you with the stats, because I’m stubborn and refuse to give up on them.  I like to keep the continuity as best as possible.  But!  I also noticed that The Athletic has an Annual Tier ranking.  Now in its 4^th year and covering the top 125 players (up from 100 the first 3 years), I’m also providing the listing of this for each team.  Double the data!  How they break down the 4 Tiers (their descriptions):

Tier 1 — MVP
A top 10 skater.
A player that is very likely to get serious trophy consideration at season’s end and one that championship caliber teams are built around. The best player on almost any team in the league.

Tier 2 — Franchise
A top 32 skater. A player that is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship caliber team. An elite top line forward or number one defenseman.

Tier 3 — All-Star
A top 60 skater.
A player that wouldn’t be the best player on a contender, but would be an integral part of any contending or championship core. A strong top line forward or average number one defenseman.

Tier 4 — Top Line
A top 125 skater.
A player that would be a strong support piece within a contending or championship core. A below average top line forward or average top pair defenseman.

The one caveat for the Athletic listing: it does not include goaltenders.  Still, I’ve often considered it the least important of our categories (note to self: maybe see if that’s why I haven’t won in a decade?).  And no, I didn’t miss a player from their “MVP – Top 10 Player” category – it really did only list 9 players.  As well, The Athletic list technically breaks each Tier down in to sub-tiers (Tier 1A, Tier 1B, etc).  I chose not to attempt to cover 13 categories across 12 teams because I’m not a total psychopath. (But I did think about it…).

Avalanche

Forecaster:

• Elite: Heiskanen
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Byram, Power, Seider, Luukkonen
• On The Rebound: E. Lindholm, F. Forsberg, Carlson, Demko, Jarry
• Buyer Beware: none

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: none
• Tier 2: Heiskanen
• Tier 3: Seider
• Tier 4: Bratt, Forsberg, E Lindholm, Power

Comments: If you look at it from the perspective of the Forecaster, they’re not good.  But if you look at it from the perspective of The Athletic, it’s also not good.  The Athletic has them with the least players overall, and none from Tier 1. It does sound like this is part of the plan, to draft high again and build from the ground up.  They do have 4 On The Rise players, so there’s something there to build on.  But this won’t be a quick turnaround.

Blackhawks

Forecaster:

• Elite: Makar
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Couturier, Mercer
• On The Rebound: Wheeler, Werenski
• Buyer Beware: Norris, Copley

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: Makar
• Tier 2: none
• Tier 3: Nylander, Barzal
• Tier 4: Burns, Werenski, Marchessault, Carlson

Comments: After a poor season, the Blackhawks ended up with the #2 pick in the draft and acquired the #4 pick in a trade.  Both picks landed them some highly talented forwards that could be the cornerstones of a future contenders.  What that doesn’t do is help them with the present.  There is some quality (even elite) talent on defense, but it will take some time for those prospect forwards to arrive and return the team to contender status.

Bruins

Forecaster:

• Elite:  none
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: K. Johnson, Boldy
• On The Rebound: Knight
• Buyer Beware: Compher, Konecny

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: none
• Tier 2: Eichel
• Tier 3: Meier, Pietrangelo, Buchnevich
• Tier 4: Boldy, Eriksson Ek, Hertl, McCann, Marino

Comments:  Last year was a great disappointment to the Bruins, as they failed to achieve meet their expectations.  And by “meet their expectations”, I mean “finish dead last”.  They proved to be slightly too good, while not tanking quite as blatantly as others (ie: they actually put players in their lineup).  Still, they’re not good this year either, ranking last or 2^nd to last on both lists and in most categories.  Expect them to be in true contention for the top pick again this year.

Canadiens

Forecaster:

• Elite: Crosby, Hamilton, Sorokin
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Sergachev, Skinner, Swayman
• On The Rebound: Rielly
• Buyer Beware: Danault

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: none
• Tier 2: Crosby, Aho
• Tier 3: Panarin, Hamilton, Theodore, Keller, Sergachev
• Tier 4: Rielly, DeBrincat, Malkin, Danault, Caufield, Hanifin

Comments:  Last year ended in disappointment for the Canadiens, as they were once more victims of the dreaded “3^rd place finish/playoff upset”.  Shockingly, the Canadiens enter the season with the 2^nd most Total Players per the Athletic.  What they don’t have is any Tier 1 players (though Crosby ranked 10^th and just missed), indicating that they have depth but no game-breakers.  The Forecaster is a little more generous on the high end, with 3 Elite players, and ties them for 4^th in Total Players.  But they were very quiet in free agency and enter the season with by far the fewest players on their roster.  The likely outcome of the season?  A number of trades at the deadline and the commencement of a rebuild.  The current core failed, and it’s time to begin moving on.

Devils

Forecaster:

• Elite: MacKinnon, McDavid
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: none
• On The Rebound: E. Kane, Hedman
• Buyer Beware: Benn, H Lindholm, Zucker, Olofsson, Bobrovsky, Ullmark

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: McDavid, MacKinnon
• Tier 2: Hedman
• Tier 3: Stone, H Lindholm, Zibanejad
• Tier 4: Dubois, Nichushkin, Orlov

Comments: Look, I’m just going to say it. That’s a lot of Buyer Beware players.  For a team that should be contending, they’re clearly taking a huge gamble on a group of players, even if it is on the depth end of things.  The Athletic doesn’t think they’re much better.  They’ve got 2 Tier 1 players (the same as the number of Elite players), but at only 9 total players they’re below average.  They’ll push hard for a Cup, but at some point the question will become: will they consider trading McDavid while he still has enormous trade value, in an effort to jump start a rebuild?  Or will they hold on to him until it’s too late?

Flyers

Forecaster:

• Elite: Draisaitl, Kucherov, M. Tkachuk, Georgiev
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: McTavish, Bouchard, Husso
• On The Rebound: Thomas, Duchene, Terry, Klingberg, Letang, Matheson, Kuemper
• Buyer Beware: Toffoli, Ekblad, Karlsson

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: Draisaitl, M Tkachuk
• Tier 2: Kucherov,
• Tier 3: B Tkachuk, Pavelski
• Tier 4: Thomas, Bouchard, Letang, Miller, J Skinner, Terry, Ekblad

Comments:  Alas, the jokes at the Flyers expense have come to an end.  Their longest Cup drought ever is over, and they enter the season as strong contenders to repeat.  The Athletic has them with the 3^rd most total players and the Forecaster has them tied for 2^nd.  The Forecaster also has them with the most players that might Rebound (7), meaning that there’s the chance for them to be even better.  If there’s one disappointment for the Flyers, it’s that they were unable to deliver another Cup to Getzlaf, the star forward having previously retired from the organization in disappoint over their continued mismanagement.

Golden Knights

Forecaster:

• Elite: Kaprizov, Hellebuyck, Oettinger
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Peterka, Dostal
• On The Rebound: Kuznetsov, J. Gaudreau
• Buyer Beware: Duclair, Krug, Montour

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: none
• Tier 2: Kaprizov
• Tier 3: Spurgeon
• Tier 4: Tavares, Ovechkin, Montour, Pelech, Jones, Kempe, Scheifele, Nurse

Comments:  Hey, the Knights are…maybe alright?  A number of big trades last year landed them 3 Elite players for this year per the Forecaster, and The Athletic has them with the most Tier 4 players (8).  For once, they might actually be Adequate (and per Phil Hartman on Newsradio, that’s a high compliment).

Lightning

Forecaster:

• Elite: Pettersson, Rantanen, Fox, Q Hughes, Josi
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Cozens, Reichel, Raymond, Vilardi, Dunn, Samsonov
• On The Rebound: Svechnikov
• Buyer Beware: Binnington, Hill

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: Fox
• Tier 2: Rantanen, Pettersson, Josi, Hischier
• Tier 3: Svechnikov, Q Hughes, Stamkos
• Tier 4: Dunn, Laine, Necas, Cozens

Comments: The Forecaster really likes this team, and frankly it’s not even close. More Elite (5), more On The Rise (6) and more Total Players (11) than anyone.  Heck, for total player it’s 4 more than the next closest teams.  Not surprisingly, the Athletic is also high them though doesn’t rank them first but instead tied for 3^rd.  However, it’s the quality of player from the Athletic that pushes them higher – 1 Tier 1 and a league best 4 Tier 2 players.  They may have only 1 Cup to date, but don’t be shocked to see them in the final again.

Penguins

Forecaster:

• Elite: Stutzle, Saros, Vasilevskiy
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Frost, W.Johnston, Dobson, Sanderson
• On The Rebound: Markstrom
• Buyer Beware: Horvat

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: none
• Tier 2: Point
• Tier 3: Stutzle
• Tier 4: Connor, Ehlers, Fiala, Horvat, Nugent-Hopkins, Suzuki

Comments:  The Forecaster gives them 3 Elite players, but 2 of them are goalies and the Athletic doesn’t measure that.  And unfortunately for the Penguins, the Athletic ranking doesn’t favour them with too many Total Players either.  They’re not an awful team, but they’re likely to be near the cut off for the playoffs this year.

Red Wings

Forecaster:

• Elite: J. Hughes, Matthews, Marner, Dahlin
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On the Rise: Tomasino
• On The Rebound: Cirelli, Korpisalo
• Buyer Beware: O’Reilly, Raanta

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: Matthews, J Hughes
• Tier 2: Marner, McAvoy, Dahlin
• Tier 3: Bedard, Larkin, Ekholm, Weegar
• Tier 4: Tuch, Hyman, Kyrou, Schmaltz, Chychrun

Comments: The Forecaster thinks they’re good, with the 2^nd most Elite players but only 5 total players, putting them in the middle of the pack.  The Athletic thinks they’re an absolute juggernaut, with 2 Tier 1, 3 Tier 2, and 14 total players, the most of anyone.  They might end up being one of the real indications on which system (Forecaster vs Athletic) is better.  They might also be the most hated team in the league right now.  After last year’s blatant tank job, it’s likely more than a few GMs are hoping they aren’t rewarded with a Cup win.

Sharks

Forecaster:

• Elite: Pastrnak, Shesterkin
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Gustavsson
• On The Rebound: Johansen, Huberdeau
• Buyer Beware: Barrie, Fleury

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: Pastrnak
• Tier 2: Marchand, Karlsson
• Tier 3: Doughty
• Tier 4: Kopitar, Morrissey, Reinhart, Huberdeau, Kreider, Nelson, R Andersson

Comments:  I’m running out of ways to say “the Sharks were predicted to be bad, but they were not”.  Their GM is already on record as saying they’re taking one last run at it before a rebuild, and who are we to doubt them?  They’ll finish mid-table, make some big acquisitions near the deadline, and be a team no one really wants to face in the playoffs.

Stars

Forecaster:

• Elite: Robertson
• Breakthrough: N/A
• On The Rise: Beniers, Thompson, Jarvis, Vanecek
• On The Rebound: Hart
• Buyer Beware: Petry

The Athletic:

• Tier 1: none
• Tier 2: Robertson, Hintz
• Tier 3: Thompson, D Toews, Guentzel, Verhaeghe
• Tier 4: Beniers, Chabot

Comments:  Every year, there’s a few younger players who unexpectedly come out of nowhere to put up big numbers.  While the rest of the league might shy away from drafting or bidding on these players, the Stars look at it as proof of concept.  It’s a method that’s landed them some higher end talent in Robertson (Elite/Tier 2) and Thompson (OTR/Tier 3).  While both of those players are good, the stats say there’s not quite enough talent to contend right now.

Bonus content:

Pre-Season Rankings
12) Avalanche
11) Bruins
10) Blackhawks
9) Penguins
8) Canadiens
7) Stars
6) Golden Knights
5) Sharks
4) Devils
3) Flyers
2) Red Wings
1) Lightning

2023-24 Stats

Forecaster
Team	Elite	Breakthrough	OT Rise	Total Players	OT Rebound	Buyer Beware
Avalanche	1	NA	4	5	5	0
Blackhawks	1	NA	2	3	2	2
Bruins	0	NA	2	2	1	2
Canadiens	3	NA	3	6	1	1
Devils	2	NA	0	2	2	6
Flyers	4	NA	3	7	7	3
Golden Knights	3	NA	2	5	2	3
Lightning	5	NA	6	11	1	2
Penguins	3	NA	4	7	1	1
Red Wings	4	NA	1	5	2	2
Sharks	2	NA	1	2	2	2
Stars	1	NA	4	5	1	1
Total	29	0	32	60	27	25

The Athletic
Team	Tier 1	Tier 2	Tier 3	Tier 4	Total
Avalanche	0	1	1	4	6
Blackhawks	1	0	2	4	7
Bruins	0	1	3	5	9
Canadiens	0	2	5	6	13
Devils	2	1	3	3	9
Flyers	2	1	2	7	12
Golden Knights	0	1	1	8	10
Lightning	1	4	3	4	12
Penguins	0	1	1	6	8
Red Wings	2	3	4	5	14
Sharks	1	2	1	7	11
Stars	0	2	4	2	8
Total	9	19	30	61	119