SFHL 2024-25 Season Preview

We may be in to the final years of using the Forecaster as a predictive tool for the pool.  It’s still available as a pdf, but I have to wonder how much they’re selling and the quality continues to drop.  I’ll continue to use it for legacy reasons, but I’m preparing for the day it’s no longer available.

However, The Athletic rankings return!  And this year, with 150 players, a 5^th tier, and it now includes goalies.  A reminder of what each category is:

Tier 1 — MVP

A top 10 skater. Someone who is very likely to get serious trophy consideration at season’s end and whom championship-caliber teams are built around. The best player on almost any team in the league.

Tier 2 — Franchise

A top 30 player. Someone who is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship-caliber team. An unquestionably elite player.

Tier 3 — All-Star

A top 60 player. Someone who wouldn’t be the best player on a contender, but would be an important part of any contending or championship core. A strong top-line forward, above average No. 1 defenseman, or borderline top five goalie.

Tier 4 — Top Line

A top 100 player. Someone who would be a strong piece within a contending or championship core, but not a go-to option. An average top line forward, below average number one defenseman, or top 10 goalie.

Tier 5 – Support

A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but who wouldn’t be an integral piece within it. A below average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.

In general, I think the Forecaster and Athletic do two different things.  The Forecaster is perhaps better at demonstrating what a team is doing (more On The Rise might indicate more of a rebuild) or how much risk their team is taking on (with the On the Rebound and Buyer Beware categories) but the Athletic does a better job of demonstrating how much depth a team has to contend this year.  I’ll continue to use both while I can, because the more information the better.

Avalanche

Forecaster:

Elite: Josi

On The Rise:

On The Rebound: Beniers,

Buyer Beware: Demko

The Athletic:

Tier 1:

Tier 2: Josi, Heiskanen

Tier 3: Forsberg, Bratt, Demko

Tier 4: Pietrangelo, Fiala, Seider

Tier 5: Beniers, E. Lindholm

Comments: The most boring team?  According to the Forecaster, they might be!  There’s simply a limited amount of good OR risky players here.  Only 1 Elite player and no one On The Rise.  But they don’t have many risky players either, with only 1 each in the On The Rebound and Buyer Beware categories.  The Athletic is more forgiving, with 10 total players. Below the average, but not wholly out line with most teams.

Blackhawks

Forecaster:

Elite: Point, Makar, Shesterkin

On The Rise: Carlsson, Slafkovsky

On The Rebound: Fantilli, Hamilton

Buyer Beware: Arvidsson, Burns

The Athletic:

Tier 1: Makar

Tier 2: Point, W. Nylander, Shesterkin

Tier 3: Barzal

Tier 4: Hamilton, Burns

Tier 5: Carlson, McCann, Slafkovsky, D. Strome

Comments: The focus will likely be on other teams, and over a long season those teams will likely win out.  But the Blackhawks seem to have rather quickly assembled a very solid team built around some young players that you likely wouldn’t want to meet in the playoffs.  They’re balanced, with some up and coming forwards and top end defense and goaltending.  They’re just behind the best teams in the Elite and Total players categories for the Forecaster, and a fraction behind in the Athletic categories (though they do have a Tier 1 player).  As it stands, they’re unlikely to win it all but advancement in the playoffs is a strong possibility.

Bruins

Forecaster:

Elite:  

On The Rise: Cooley, Guenther, Mintyukov

On The Rebound: Andersson

Buyer Beware: Chytil, Drysdale, Spurgeon

The Athletic:

Tier 1:

Tier 2:

Tier 3: Forsling, Boldy

Tier 4: Eriksson Ek, Buchnevich, Hanifin, Konecny, Spurgeon, Meier

Tier 5: Nugent-Hopkins, Marchessault, Andersson, Chabot

Comments:  They’re still not good, but they’re better than last year.  Drafting young talent and some trades has resulted in them having more Tier 4 category players than anyone else.  But, they completely lack top end talent with zero Tier 1 or 2 players.  The rebuild is ongoing and a return to contending is a ways off.

Canadiens

Forecaster:

Elite: Swayman

On The Rise: Harley

On The Rebound: P. Kane, Sergachev, Theodore, Sorokin

Buyer Beware: Tavares, E. Kane, Vatrano, Fowler

The Athletic:

Tier 1:

Tier 2: Sorokin

Tier 3: Swayman, Keller, Theodore

Tier 4: Marchand, Harley, Tavares

Tier 5: Sergachev, Caulfield, Debrincat, Byfield, P. Kane, S. Skinner, Skjei

Comments:  Do you like to gamble?  Because apparently the Canadiens do.  No team has more On the Rebound players (4).  No team as more Buyer Beware players (also 4).  That’s...a lot of bad players.  Or at least risky ones.  They’re respectable in Total Players per the Athletic, but lack any Tier 1 talent.  It’s going to be a long year, but a busy trade deadline if any of their gambles are having a good season.

Devils

Forecaster:

Elite: MacKinnon, McDavid

On The Rise:

On The Rebound: Rakell, Hill

Buyer Beware: Dubois, Coleman, Nyquist,

The Athletic:

Tier 1: McDavid, MacKinnon

Tier 2: Eichel

Tier 3: Hedman

Tier 4: Hagel, Stone, Zibanejad, Dunn

Tier 5: H. Lindholm, Stamkos, Rust

Comments: There has yet to be an elite player who has not won the SFHL Championship, but the combo of McDavid and MacKinnon are certainly working on it.  Its two Elite players, but not enough depth behind them (per both the Forecaster and the Athletic).  This is a team built to make the playoffs and then hope that everyone catches fire at the right time.  It wouldn’t be the first time that has happened in this pool, but it’s a tough ask.

Flyers

Forecaster:

Elite: Draisaitl, Kucherov, M. Tkachuk, Bouchard

On The Rise: McTavish, Faber

On The Rebound: Lehkonen, Andersen, Kuemper

Buyer Beware: Woll

The Athletic:

Tier 1: Draisaitl, Kucherov, M. Tkachuk

Tier 2: Bouchard

Tier 3: Reinhart. Thomas, B. Tkachuk, Doughty, J.T. Miller

Tier 4: Faber, Kopitar

Tier 5: Kadri, Letang, Benn, Lehkonen

Comments:  The back to back Champions look set to try and make it a three-peat. More Elite players than anyone per the Forecaster.  More Tier 1 players per the Athletic and the 2^nd most Total Players.  They have depth and balance across all positions, but you can guarantee they’ll be active all season trying to make the team even better.  They’re the presumptive favourites until someone proves they’re not.

Golden Knights

Forecaster:

Elite: Kaprizov, Hellebuyck, Oettinger

On The Rise: Dostal, Ingram, Primeau

On The Rebound: Chinakhov, Burakovsky

Buyer Beware: Ovechkin, Montour

The Athletic:

Tier 1:

Tier 2: Crosby, Kaprizov, Hellebuyck

Tier 3: Morrissey, Slavin

Tier 4: Oettinger

Tier 5: S. Jones, Terry, Kempe, Montour, Scheifele, K. Miller, Ovechkin, Tippett

Comments:  Do you want goaltending?  Because the Golden Knights have goaltending.  They have so many goaltenders one wonders if they know they can only play 1 at a time.  Goaltending makes up 2 of their 3 Elite players and all 3 of their On the Rise players per the Forecaster.  They have a fair amount of quality depth players per the Athletic, but what they don’t have is Tier 1 talent.  Still, it might be enough for a playoff upset or two.

Lightning

Forecaster:

Elite: Pettersson, Rantanen, Fox, Q. Hughes

On The Rise: Vilardi, Kochetkov

On The Rebound: Cozens, Laine

Buyer Beware: Couturier

The Athletic:

Tier 1: Fox, Q. Hughes

Tier 2: Pettersson, Rantanen, Hischier

Tier 3:

Tier 4: Svechnikov, Trocheck, Ullmark, Raymond, Rielly

Tier 5: Cozens

Comments: They are the 1990s Atlanta Braves of the SFHL.  They have won once, but you’re baffled as to how they haven’t won more.  The window is still open.  They’re tied for the most Elite and Total Players per the Forecaster.  They’ve got a strong contingent of Tier 1 and 2 players per the Athletic.  But the Athletic indicates they don’t have the depth they used to.  Their trade deadline this year will be fascinating to watch. Will they aggressively try to end the Flyers current mini-streak, or will they stand pat and risk watching their season end in more heart break?

Penguins

Forecaster:

Elite: Saros

On The Rise: Knies, Johnston, Neighbours, L. Hughes

On The Rebound: Stutzle, Ekblad, Vasilevskiy, Markstrom

Buyer Beware:

The Athletic:

Tier 1: Barkov

Tier 2: Saros

Tier 3: Vasilevskiy, Dobson, Stutzle

Tier 4: Johnston, Suzuki, Sanderson, Connor, Horvat

Tier 5: Ehlers, Power, Boeser, Ekblad

Comments:  Much too good to miss the playoffs, not enough elite talent to contend.  Squarely in the middle of the table.  Solid in every position and relying on young talent to take a step forward, with more On The Rise players than anyone.  But, late in the season if it looks like a playoff match up vs the Flyers is possible, look for them to make some high end trades just to pull off the upset.  One of the great SFHL rivalries, and you know the Penguins would love nothing more than to end the Flyers chances at a three-peat.

Red Wings

Forecaster:

Elite: Matthews, Panarin, Dahlin

On the Rise: Bedard, Luukkonen

On The Rebound:

Buyer Beware: Weegar, Binnington

The Athletic:

Tier 1: Matthews, J. Hughes

Tier 2: Panarin, Aho, Marner, McAvoy

Tier 3: Bedard, Dahlin, Hyman, Ekholm, Larkin, Weegar

Tier 4:

Tier 5: Bobrovsky, Kyrou, R. O’Reilly, Tuch

Comments: Two years after controversially tanking, a year of “misery” might be about to pay off for the Red Wings.  They started last season as dark horse contenders and aggressively traded for additional Elite (Forecaster)/Tier 2 (Athletic) talent.  They have more players (16) on the Athletic’s list and primarily in the top 3 categories.  They’ve limited the number of risky players they’re taking a chance on per the Forecaster, with only 2 Buyer Beware players and no one On The Rebound.  They are set to be the primary challengers to end the Flyers run.  We’ll see how this season unfolds.

Sharks

Forecaster:

Elite: Pastrnak

On The Rise: Zary, Foerster

On The Rebound: E. Karlsson

Buyer Beware: Stephenson, Gustavsson

The Athletic:

Tier 1: Pastrnak

Tier 2:

Tier 3:

Tier 4: E. Karlsson, Werenski

Tier 5:

Comments:  They’ve been so dominant for so long, it was hard to envision what a Sharks rebuild would look like.  Well, here we are.  An absolutely gutted roster with barely enough players to legally dress a line up.  One elite player, and we can safely assume they’re trying to trade him. Only 3 players total on The Athletic’s ranking, a staggering SEVEN fewer players than any other team.  This is a “Buffalo chasing dead last to draft McDavid” style tear down, one where we may see new records of futility reached.  The Sharks were always amongst the most aggressive in chasing a Cup, and now they seem equally fervent in tanking.  We haven’t seen a tear down this quickly since the now-defunct Maples Leafs panicked one afternoon.  Safe to presume the Sharks will do a better job of rebuilding, but we’ll see how long it takes.

Stars

Forecaster:

Elite:

On The Rise: Zellweger

On The Rebound: Hertl, Thompson

Buyer Beware: Granlund, Lindgren

The Athletic:

Tier 1:

Tier 2: J. Robertson

Tier 3: Guentzel, Hintz, T.Thompson, Toews

Tier 4: Verhaeghe, Jarvis

Tier 5: Malkin, Hertl, Hronek, Lafreniere

Comments:  The Stars seem to be a team caught in the middle.  They’re the poorest rated team by the Forecaster (0 Elite players and only 1 player On The Rise) and they’re near the bottom of The Athletic rankings, with most of their players skewing in to the bottom half.  And yet, they made the playoffs last year and had no draft picks.   They don’t appear to be tanking, but there’s simply not enough to truly contend.  They appear to be destined for more of the same this year.

Bonus content:

Pre-Season Rankings

12) Sharks

11) Bruins

10) Avalanche

9) Canadiens

8) Stars

7) Penguins

6) Devils

5) Blackhawks

4) Golden Knights

3) Lightning

2) Flyers

1) Red Wings

2024-25 Stats:

Forecaster:
Team	Elite	OT Rise	Total Players	OT Rebound	Buyer Beware
Avalanche	1	0	1	1	1
Blackhawks	3	2	5	2	2
Bruins	0	3	3	1	3
Canadiens	1	1	2	4	4
Devils	2	0	2	2	3
Flyers	4	2	6	3	1
Golden Knights	3	3	6	2	2
Lightning	4	2	6	2	1
Penguins	1	4	5	3	0
Red Wings	3	2	5	0	2
Sharks	1	2	3	1	2
Stars	0	1	1	2	2
Total	23	22	45	23	23

The Athletic:
Team	Tier 1	Tier 2	Tier 3	Tier 4	Tier 5	Total
Avalanche	0	2	3	3	2	10
Blackhawks	1	3	1	2	4	11
Bruins	0	0	2	6	4	12
Canadiens	0	1	3	3	7	14
Devils	2	1	1	4	3	11
Flyers	3	1	5	2	4	15
Golden Knights	0	3	2	1	8	14
Lightning	2	3	0	5	1	11
Penguins	1	1	3	5	4	14
Red Wings	2	4	6	0	4	16
Sharks	1	0	0	2	0	3
Stars	0	1	4	2	4	11
Total	12	20	30	35	45	142