We may be in to the final years of using the Forecaster as a predictive tool for the pool. It\u2019s still available as a pdf, but I have to wonder how much they\u2019re selling and the quality continues to drop. I\u2019ll continue to use it for legacy reasons, but I\u2019m preparing for the day it\u2019s no longer available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, The Athletic rankings return! And this year, with 150 players, a 5th<\/sup> tier, and it now includes goalies. A reminder of what each category is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1 \u2014 MVP<\/p>\n\n\n\n A top 10 skater. Someone who is very likely to get serious trophy consideration at season\u2019s end and whom championship-caliber teams are built around. The best player on almost any team in the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2 \u2014 Franchise<\/p>\n\n\n\n A top 30 player. Someone who is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship-caliber team. An unquestionably elite player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3 \u2014 All-Star<\/p>\n\n\n\n A top 60 player. Someone who wouldn\u2019t be the best player on a contender, but would be an important part of any contending or championship core. A strong top-line forward, above average No. 1 defenseman, or borderline top five goalie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4 \u2014 Top Line<\/p>\n\n\n\n A top 100 player. Someone who would be a strong piece within a contending or championship core, but not a go-to option. An average top line forward, below average number one defenseman, or top 10 goalie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5 \u2013 Support<\/p>\n\n\n\n A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but who wouldn\u2019t be an integral piece within it. A below average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In general, I think the Forecaster and Athletic do two different things. The Forecaster is perhaps better at demonstrating what a team is doing (more On The Rise might indicate more of a rebuild) or how much risk their team is taking on (with the On the Rebound and Buyer Beware categories) but the Athletic does a better job of demonstrating how much depth a team has to contend this year. I\u2019ll continue to use both while I can, because the more information the better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Avalanche<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Josi<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise:<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Beniers,<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Demko<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Josi, Heiskanen<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Forsberg, Bratt, Demko<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Pietrangelo, Fiala, Seider<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Beniers, E. Lindholm<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: The most boring team? According to the Forecaster, they might be! There\u2019s simply a limited amount of good OR risky players here. Only 1 Elite player and no one On The Rise. But they don\u2019t have many risky players either, with only 1 each in the On The Rebound and Buyer Beware categories. The Athletic is more forgiving, with 10 total players. Below the average, but not wholly out line with most teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Blackhawks<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Point, Makar, Shesterkin<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Carlsson, Slafkovsky<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Fantilli, Hamilton<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Arvidsson, Burns<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1: Makar<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Point, W. Nylander, Shesterkin<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Barzal<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Hamilton, Burns<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Carlson, McCann, Slafkovsky, D. Strome<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: The focus will likely be on other teams, and over a long season those teams will likely win out. But the Blackhawks seem to have rather quickly assembled a very solid team built around some young players that you likely wouldn\u2019t want to meet in the playoffs. They\u2019re balanced, with some up and coming forwards and top end defense and goaltending. They\u2019re just behind the best teams in the Elite and Total players categories for the Forecaster, and a fraction behind in the Athletic categories (though they do have a Tier 1 player). As it stands, they\u2019re unlikely to win it all but advancement in the playoffs is a strong possibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bruins<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: <\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Cooley, Guenther, Mintyukov<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Andersson<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Chytil, Drysdale, Spurgeon<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Forsling, Boldy<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Eriksson Ek, Buchnevich, Hanifin, Konecny, Spurgeon, Meier<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Nugent-Hopkins, Marchessault, Andersson, Chabot<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: They\u2019re still not good, but they\u2019re better than last year. Drafting young talent and some trades has resulted in them having more Tier 4 category players than anyone else. But, they completely lack top end talent with zero Tier 1 or 2 players. The rebuild is ongoing and a return to contending is a ways off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Canadiens<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Swayman<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Harley<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: P. Kane, Sergachev, Theodore, Sorokin<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Tavares, E. Kane, Vatrano, Fowler<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Sorokin<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Swayman, Keller, Theodore<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Marchand, Harley, Tavares<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Sergachev, Caulfield, Debrincat, Byfield, P. Kane, S. Skinner, Skjei<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: Do you like to gamble? Because apparently the Canadiens do. No team has more On the Rebound players (4). No team as more Buyer Beware players (also 4). That\u2019s...a lot of bad players. Or at least risky ones. They\u2019re respectable in Total Players per the Athletic, but lack any Tier 1 talent. It\u2019s going to be a long year, but a busy trade deadline if any of their gambles are having a good season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Devils<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: MacKinnon, McDavid<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise:<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Rakell, Hill<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Dubois, Coleman, Nyquist,<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1: McDavid, MacKinnon<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Eichel<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Hedman<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Hagel, Stone, Zibanejad, Dunn<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: H. Lindholm, Stamkos, Rust<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: There has yet to be an elite player who has not won the SFHL Championship, but the combo of McDavid and MacKinnon are certainly working on it. Its two Elite players, but not enough depth behind them (per both the Forecaster and the Athletic). This is a team built to make the playoffs and then hope that everyone catches fire at the right time. It wouldn\u2019t be the first time that has happened in this pool, but it\u2019s a tough ask.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Flyers<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Draisaitl, Kucherov, M. Tkachuk, Bouchard<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: McTavish, Faber<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Lehkonen, Andersen, Kuemper<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Woll<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1: Draisaitl, Kucherov, M. Tkachuk<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Bouchard<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Reinhart. Thomas, B. Tkachuk, Doughty, J.T. Miller<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Faber, Kopitar<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Kadri, Letang, Benn, Lehkonen<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: The back to back Champions look set to try and make it a three-peat. More Elite players than anyone per the Forecaster. More Tier 1 players per the Athletic and the 2nd<\/sup> most Total Players. They have depth and balance across all positions, but you can guarantee they\u2019ll be active all season trying to make the team even better. They\u2019re the presumptive favourites until someone proves they\u2019re not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Golden Knights<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Kaprizov, Hellebuyck, Oettinger<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Dostal, Ingram, Primeau<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Chinakhov, Burakovsky<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Ovechkin, Montour<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Crosby, Kaprizov, Hellebuyck<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Morrissey, Slavin<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Oettinger<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: S. Jones, Terry, Kempe, Montour, Scheifele, K. Miller, Ovechkin, Tippett<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: Do you want goaltending? Because the Golden Knights have goaltending. They have so many goaltenders one wonders if they know they can only play 1 at a time. Goaltending makes up 2 of their 3 Elite players and all 3 of their On the Rise players per the Forecaster. They have a fair amount of quality depth players per the Athletic, but what they don\u2019t have is Tier 1 talent. Still, it might be enough for a playoff upset or two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lightning<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Pettersson, Rantanen, Fox, Q. Hughes<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Vilardi, Kochetkov<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Cozens, Laine<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Couturier<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1: Fox, Q. Hughes<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Pettersson, Rantanen, Hischier<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Svechnikov, Trocheck, Ullmark, Raymond, Rielly<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Cozens<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: They are the 1990s Atlanta Braves of the SFHL. They have won once, but you\u2019re baffled as to how they haven\u2019t won more. The window is still open. They\u2019re tied for the most Elite and Total Players per the Forecaster. They\u2019ve got a strong contingent of Tier 1 and 2 players per the Athletic. But the Athletic indicates they don\u2019t have the depth they used to. Their trade deadline this year will be fascinating to watch. Will they aggressively try to end the Flyers current mini-streak, or will they stand pat and risk watching their season end in more heart break?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Penguins<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Saros<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Knies, Johnston, Neighbours, L. Hughes<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Stutzle, Ekblad, Vasilevskiy, Markstrom<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1: Barkov<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Saros<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Vasilevskiy, Dobson, Stutzle<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Johnston, Suzuki, Sanderson, Connor, Horvat<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Ehlers, Power, Boeser, Ekblad<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: Much too good to miss the playoffs, not enough elite talent to contend. Squarely in the middle of the table. Solid in every position and relying on young talent to take a step forward, with more On The Rise players than anyone. But, late in the season if it looks like a playoff match up vs the Flyers is possible, look for them to make some high end trades just to pull off the upset. One of the great SFHL rivalries, and you know the Penguins would love nothing more than to end the Flyers chances at a three-peat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Red Wings<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Matthews, Panarin, Dahlin<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the Rise: Bedard, Luukkonen<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Weegar, Binnington<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1: Matthews, J. Hughes<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: Panarin, Aho, Marner, McAvoy<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Bedard, Dahlin, Hyman, Ekholm, Larkin, Weegar<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Bobrovsky, Kyrou, R. O\u2019Reilly, Tuch<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: Two years after controversially tanking, a year of \u201cmisery\u201d might be about to pay off for the Red Wings. They started last season as dark horse contenders and aggressively traded for additional Elite (Forecaster)\/Tier 2 (Athletic) talent. They have more players (16) on the Athletic\u2019s list and primarily in the top 3 categories. They\u2019ve limited the number of risky players they\u2019re taking a chance on per the Forecaster, with only 2 Buyer Beware players and no one On The Rebound. They are set to be the primary challengers to end the Flyers run. We\u2019ll see how this season unfolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sharks<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite: Pastrnak<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Zary, Foerster<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: E. Karlsson<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Stephenson, Gustavsson<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1: Pastrnak<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: E. Karlsson, Werenski<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: They\u2019ve been so dominant for so long, it was hard to envision what a Sharks rebuild would look like. Well, here we are. An absolutely gutted roster with barely enough players to legally dress a line up. One elite player, and we can safely assume they\u2019re trying to trade him. Only 3 players total on The Athletic\u2019s ranking, a staggering SEVEN fewer players than any other team. This is a \u201cBuffalo chasing dead last to draft McDavid\u201d style tear down, one where we may see new records of futility reached. The Sharks were always amongst the most aggressive in chasing a Cup, and now they seem equally fervent in tanking. We haven\u2019t seen a tear down this quickly since the now-defunct Maples Leafs panicked one afternoon. Safe to presume the Sharks will do a better job of rebuilding, but we\u2019ll see how long it takes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stars<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forecaster:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Elite:<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rise: Zellweger<\/p>\n\n\n\n On The Rebound: Hertl, Thompson<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buyer Beware: Granlund, Lindgren<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 2: J. Robertson<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 3: Guentzel, Hintz, T.Thompson, Toews<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 4: Verhaeghe, Jarvis<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tier 5: Malkin, Hertl, Hronek, Lafreniere<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments: The Stars seem to be a team caught in the middle. They\u2019re the poorest rated team by the Forecaster (0 Elite players and only 1 player On The Rise) and they\u2019re near the bottom of The Athletic rankings, with most of their players skewing in to the bottom half. And yet, they made the playoffs last year and had no draft picks. They don\u2019t appear to be tanking, but there\u2019s simply not enough to truly contend. They appear to be destined for more of the same this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bonus content:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Pre-Season Rankings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 12) Sharks<\/p>\n\n\n\n 11) Bruins<\/p>\n\n\n\n 10) Avalanche<\/p>\n\n\n\n 9) Canadiens<\/p>\n\n\n\n 8) Stars<\/p>\n\n\n\n 7) Penguins<\/p>\n\n\n\n 6) Devils<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5) Blackhawks<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4) Golden Knights<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3) Lightning<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2) Flyers<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1) Red Wings<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2024-25 Stats:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n We may be in to the final years of using the Forecaster as a predictive tool for the pool. It\u2019s still available as a pdf, but I have to wonder how much they\u2019re selling and the quality continues to drop. I\u2019ll continue to use it for legacy reasons, but I\u2019m preparing for the day it\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sns_share_botton_hide":"","vkExUnit_sns_title":"","_vk_print_noindex":"","sitemap_hide":"","_veu_custom_css":"","veu_display_promotion_alert":"common","vkexunit_cta_each_option":"","_lightning_design_setting":{"layout":"default"},"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","tag-preview"],"veu_head_title_object":{"title":"","add_site_title":""},"yoast_head":"\nForecaster:<\/strong><\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr> Team<\/strong><\/td> Elite<\/strong><\/td> OT Rise<\/strong><\/td> Total Players<\/strong><\/td> OT Rebound<\/strong><\/td> Buyer Beware<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Avalanche<\/td> 1<\/td> 0<\/td> 1<\/td> 1<\/td> 1<\/td><\/tr> Blackhawks<\/td> 3<\/td> 2<\/td> 5<\/td> 2<\/td> 2<\/td><\/tr> Bruins<\/td> 0<\/td> 3<\/td> 3<\/td> 1<\/td> 3<\/td><\/tr> Canadiens<\/td> 1<\/td> 1<\/td> 2<\/td> 4<\/td> 4<\/td><\/tr> Devils<\/td> 2<\/td> 0<\/td> 2<\/td> 2<\/td> 3<\/td><\/tr> Flyers<\/td> 4<\/td> 2<\/td> 6<\/td> 3<\/td> 1<\/td><\/tr> Golden Knights<\/td> 3<\/td> 3<\/td> 6<\/td> 2<\/td> 2<\/td><\/tr> Lightning<\/td> 4<\/td> 2<\/td> 6<\/td> 2<\/td> 1<\/td><\/tr> Penguins<\/td> 1<\/td> 4<\/td> 5<\/td> 3<\/td> 0<\/td><\/tr> Red Wings<\/td> 3<\/td> 2<\/td> 5<\/td> 0<\/td> 2<\/td><\/tr> Sharks<\/td> 1<\/td> 2<\/td> 3<\/td> 1<\/td> 2<\/td><\/tr> Stars<\/td> 0<\/td> 1<\/td> 1<\/td> 2<\/td> 2<\/td><\/tr> Total<\/td> 23<\/td> 22<\/td> 45<\/td> 23<\/td> 23<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n The Athletic:<\/strong><\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr> Team<\/strong><\/td> Tier 1<\/strong><\/td> Tier 2<\/strong><\/td> Tier 3<\/strong><\/td> Tier 4<\/strong><\/td> Tier 5<\/strong><\/td> Total<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Avalanche<\/td> 0<\/td> 2<\/td> 3<\/td> 3<\/td> 2<\/td> 10<\/td><\/tr> Blackhawks<\/td> 1<\/td> 3<\/td> 1<\/td> 2<\/td> 4<\/td> 11<\/td><\/tr> Bruins<\/td> 0<\/td> 0<\/td> 2<\/td> 6<\/td> 4<\/td> 12<\/td><\/tr> Canadiens<\/td> 0<\/td> 1<\/td> 3<\/td> 3<\/td> 7<\/td> 14<\/td><\/tr> Devils<\/td> 2<\/td> 1<\/td> 1<\/td> 4<\/td> 3<\/td> 11<\/td><\/tr> Flyers<\/td> 3<\/td> 1<\/td> 5<\/td> 2<\/td> 4<\/td> 15<\/td><\/tr> Golden Knights<\/td> 0<\/td> 3<\/td> 2<\/td> 1<\/td> 8<\/td> 14<\/td><\/tr> Lightning<\/td> 2<\/td> 3<\/td> 0<\/td> 5<\/td> 1<\/td> 11<\/td><\/tr> Penguins<\/td> 1<\/td> 1<\/td> 3<\/td> 5<\/td> 4<\/td> 14<\/td><\/tr> Red Wings<\/td> 2<\/td> 4<\/td> 6<\/td> 0<\/td> 4<\/td> 16<\/td><\/tr> Sharks<\/td> 1<\/td> 0<\/td> 0<\/td> 2<\/td> 0<\/td> 3<\/td><\/tr> Stars<\/td> 0<\/td> 1<\/td> 4<\/td> 2<\/td> 4<\/td> 11<\/td><\/tr> Total<\/td> 12<\/td> 20<\/td> 30<\/td> 35<\/td> 45<\/td> 142<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"